Not understanding the math behind the rule does not make it a good rule

Treating the output of an "algorithm" as inherently more objective or insightful than an expert opinion or even a gut feeling is really not defensible, though it is often treated as such.  Especially I've noticed when it confirms existing biases.

A decent if short interview plugging a paywalled article is here:

[T]ransparency is needed where technologies affect us in significant ways. Algorithms decide if individuals are legitimate candidates for mortgages, loans, or insurance; they also determine interest rates and premiums.

[. . . ]

But algorithms trained with biased data pick up and replicate these biases, and develop new ones.

[ . . . ]

If you’re hiring someone for a management position and you feed your algorithm data from the last 30 years, the data will be skewed, and the projected ideal candidate will be someone male, white, and in his 40s or 50s. I am a woman in my early 30s, so I would be filtered out immediately, even if I’m suitable for that position. And it gets even worse, because sometimes algorithms are used to display job ads, so I wouldn’t even see the position is available.

Quick additional note: Feeding in data without explicit race and gender markers does not solve the problem, since if these are powerful factors they will be inferred from other traits in the data set. 

More links to toss in the fire

Trump's draft terrorism related ban avoids banning immigration from countries he does business with.  So Saudi Arabia, home to the 9/11 attackers, is not on the list.

"The Thing" was a passive Russian listening device embedded in a gift sent to the US ambassador.  Since it used no power it was hard to detect--basically a proto-RFD in 1945.  It apparently lasted five years, but the real evidence of Russian perfidy is that the bug violated a US patent.

L. M. Bujold interview.  Best response was about reactions to her writing--I figured she'd go with being glad she made someone happy (that's what the questions seemed to be leading to) but instead:

One that continues to baffle me is the indefatigable enthusiasm of some fans for explaining to others that Barrayaran neo-feudalism is a terrible system of government, as if their fellow readers couldn’t figure that out for themselves. [ . . . ]  From the passion these readers bring to the table, one would gather they imagine insidious card-carrying Feudalists are dire threat to the lifeblood of our nation.

Instead of Dancing in the Fire

Things Cassandra Saw That She Didn't Tell the Trojans, Because at That Point Fuck Them Anyway

Did Bad Health Care Kill the Republic?  Compare and contrast with how Lois Bujold thinks about pregnancy and technology.  In sci-fi.   Space opera sci-fi.  Military space opera sci-fi.
The Star Wars Insect Theory.  Hadn't realized this was from Max Gladstone.

The Queen Does Not Rule.  So Star Wars insects wouldn't be ants.  Not bad, and by an actual researcher.  But interesting that there's criticism of comparing ants to centralized systems back when that was the rage followed by an (un-self-aware?) insistence that they're more like trendy modern networks.

"Upward mobility" and economic growth

I've realized in the last few years that a lot of my professional success is due to working at a growing company for so long.  People needed to move into new roles, learn new things, take on more responsibility, and some of that naturally went to internal people who were in the ballpark in skill and experience.  Sure, some of that happens everywhere but the rates would be very different.  So while in one sense I can look back and think "work hard and get rewarded" it just wouldn't have happened in a contracting company like much of the pharmaceutical world.

This also applies nationwide--people who came of age in the '50s would have experienced, in aggregate, a lot of salary increases over the course of their career and looking at themselves and their cohort have learned that hard work is rewarded and if you're patient you should get ahead.  The lower growth rates of the last few decades will leave people with a different view of how things work, even if all else were equal.

Long intro but I kind of assumed that this phenomenon--lower growth--is a big part of people not doing better than their parents.  Not moving up in relative terms (ie, staying in the same quintile) is primarily a policy issue but as it turns out so is not earning more than your parents.


From Vox.

In retrospect I should have been able to figure this out without seeing a graph, given what I believe about the impact of policy on equality over the last 60 years.

Privilege of the Sword

At some point I'll go back and just post links to my missing reviews I suppose, but this was one of the more charming books I've read and a good fit for my middlebrow views on how literature should address important topics.


The Privilege of the Sword by Ellen Kushner
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

Lucius Perry was masked so it's a good thing I recognized his smooth dark hair, that and his sleeve, which was of an unusual cut in that glorious peacock blue. When you've mended as many clothes as I have, you sort of memorize fabrics without meaning to.

This book started seeming a little forced to me but grew into such a pleasure soon I was convinced the initial problems were all on me. This is definitely true of the ending, which initially felt unsatisfying but after sleeping on it seemed to be exactly what it should have been.

The setup has Katherine, a young woman, invited by a rich relative to come to the city. Against all conventions of civilized behavior he then dresses her in men's clothes and starts training her in swordplay. You could have ended up with an straightforward young-adult style adventure story which just plopped a girl in the hero's slot. But for a story that is rather explicitly about gender it's a testament to Kushner's craft how the points fill the background too. The mad uncle's idea is that a woman, given a sword and trained in dueling, can now decide for herself what "honor" is. This metaphorical give-a-woman-her-own-voice approach is mirrored in a book with long segments from women's point of view, neither of whom are Arya Stark like tomboys. Hence the quote--when Katherine thinks of needle, she is in fact thinking of a sewing needle and her domestic skills, and those have an unembarrassed place in this swashbuckling yarn.

I picked this up on an Audible sale with a 2-for-1 offer without knowing anything about it, except the "Neil Gaiman presents" bit on the recording. I've never been so satisfied with such a blatant marketing ploy.

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Improbable Transition Forms

An interesting way to view life:

There exists between the sun and the Earth a colossal difference in temperature . . . The energy of the sun may, before reaching the temperature of the Earth, assume improbable transition forms.  It thus becomes possible to use the temperature drop between the sun and the Earth for performing work, as is the case with the temperature drop between steam and water.

Boltzmann, quoted in Morton's Eating the Sun.  From the quote I'm not sure if Boltzmann was really thinking of all of life's intricate processes as just complicated and improbable cascades of energy through electrons and molecules, but Morton definitely is.

Mystères à Twin Peaks

Still Life by Louise Penny
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

First in an ongoing and apparently well-loved mystery series; I kind of get the appeal but for me it was not quite what it wanted to be.

The main gimmick (at least for American me) is the small town Quebec setting. There's a murder by hunting arrow (or maybe it was an accident, but of course it wasn't an accident) and big city inspector Gamache and his team turn over stones in the town until they uncover the hidden secret that matters.

Characters, description and plot were satisfying for moderately long stretches--I didn't hate the book. I found the final resolution disappointing but my main complaint was there was too much showing and not enough telling. For example, putatively insightful characters or actions that I thought were shown in such detail as to seem empty puffery. This includes various interview tricks or bits of detection, but the low point for me was a long conversation in which an ex-psychiatrist (part of he local color) explains how she left the profession because realized that some people just don't want to change. This is such a cliche it's a lightbulb joke* but it's presented as if it were a politically incorrect secret that was extracted by a brave soul after a long career. Better at this point I think to skip the details and just remark on her warmth or cutting humor or whatever trait was imagined.

Maybe things tighten up in the later books--the errors seemed avoidable--but there will be other books for me instead of the sequels.

*"Just one, but it has to want to change."

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